← Stadium PTM Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Stadium PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
53.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1363
· median 1363
· range 1335–1390
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1163
Q1 1176
Q3 1344
1390
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.7% | -23.3 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
